Friday, July 8, 2011

Box Office Battle - July 8th

One of the things that I have recently started loving about movies, thanks in no small part to a wonderfully fun game that I always seem to come in second place at over at the Filmspotting Forums, is keeping track of the box office. I know I tend to specialize in review here, but there's something thrilling about prognosticating about what Mrs. and Mr. Jane Q. Public will potentially be seeing this weekend, and exactly how much money each big new movie is going to make. So why not share my guesses with more than just my Filmspotting Circle (Google Plus trademark pending)? So how might this weekend's box office shake out? Well, let's do some projecting!


This Kevin James vehicle, following in the footsteps of financial successes like the mindnumbing laugh vacuum Paul Blart: Mall Cop and the not at all cash-in-on-barely- funny-famous-comedians ensemble piece Grown Ups, may finally be the breaking point for the comedian's winning streak. Probably not though, but I like to have some hope that the general public would have the good sense to avoid what looks like, in no attempt to avoid sounding like Stan in the season finale of South Park, a huge steaming turd being shot from the mouth of a talking gorilla who loves Fridays. The chain bar and grill, not the Rebecca Black kind. But I bet he loves those as well.

The aforementioned Kevin James shit shows opened to $31Million and $40M respectively, but even with Cars 2 tanking, my guess is that families will seek entertainment elsewhere. Actually, the best film to compare this to when thinking about openings is probably Mr. Popper's Penguins, which debuted a few weeks ago to a disappointing (for a Jim Carrey led family comedy) $18M. I expect James to do about the same.

Prediction: $17.88M
Horrible Bosses

The other big release of this weekend is an ensemble offering featuring star power the likes of which the world has never seen. Well, not since MacGruber anyway. The number of B to C list comedians on display here - really, how big of a draw can the combined might of perpetual straight man (whom I love) Jason Bateman, perpetual shit-flipper Charlie Day, and perpetual perpetual Jason Sudeikis be - seems directly counter balanced with the flabbergasting inclusion of a star packed supporting cast that boasts Jamie Foxx, Jennifer Aniston, Kevin Spacey, and Collin Farrell. Now the trailers for this have been a pretty mixed bag, and I'm always hesitant about a dark comedy that is also being peddled by a major studio because I fear it will always devolve in to convention, but word is that the cast is firing on all cylinders and I imagine the majority of America can relate to hating a boss at some point. Insert bad stand up comedy routine here!

With R comedies making huge bank in 2011, both The Hangover Part II and Bridesmaids taking in well over $150, I expect this to be the biggest opening of many of the stars's careers. Sudeikis's Hall Pass only opened to around $13M and a film featuring Day as a supporting player, Going the Distance, opened to a paltry $6. Bateman has been in movies that have opened big before, and despite vastly different premises this film is likely best compared to something like Couples Retreat which opened to $34M. But even that film had Vince Vaughn to help it along. Clearly we are not talking The Hangover Part II numbers here, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this one do somewhere around the opening of Bridesmaids's $26M.

Prediction: $28.21M

I doubt either of them will be able to outperform Transformers: Dark of the Moon, but I always like seeing Jason Bateman make money. Here's how I think the Top Five will look come Monday morning:

2. Horrible Bosses
3. Zookeeper
5. Larry Crowne

What do you think will make money? How much? Do you think I am completely off the mark? Let me know below.


Comments are welcome and, for anyone with a literary mind, I encourage checking out my poetry blogfilled with all original works for your reading pleasure. Or if video games are more your thing, I have a blog dedicated to all gaming news, reviews, and opinions.

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© 2011 Richard James Thorne

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